Import AI· Jack Clark·· 2026-05-04
Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.
Import AI 455: AI systems are about to start building themselves.
AI summary
Jack Clark estimates in Import AI 455 a roughly 60% chance of AI R&D autonomously training successor models without human involvement by the end of 2028, and around 30% in 2027.
Selection record
Threshold 76Media and individualsFirst 62Second 62
Not admittedSum of both 124 < twice the threshold 152
- Source tier
- Media and individuals; this tier's threshold is 76
- Pre-filter
- passed：讨论AI自动化AI研发及自建系统
A model scores each item twice, independently, against one written standard, out of 100. An item is admitted only when the two scores add up to twice the threshold. The threshold is set per source tier.
Source: Import AI · importai.substack.com